NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCD SCU
Points 68.3 71.8
Total Points   140.1
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 37.3
Points From 3-Pointers 17.5 19.6
Points From Free Throws 17.4 14.8
Shooting UCD SCU
Field Goals Made 22.5 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.0 55.4
Field Goal % 41.0% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 34.5 35.3
2 Point Shooting % 48.4% 52.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 20.1
3 Point Shooting % 28.4% 32.5%
Free Throws Made 17.4 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 21.2
Free Throw % 76.1% 69.6%
Ball Control UCD SCU
Rebounds 30.2 39.2
Rebounds - Defensive 22.0 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 11.9
Turnovers 10.4 13.6
Blocked Shots 2.4 2.6
Steals 7.5 5.0
Fouls 17.5 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: UC Davis

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCD SCU
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 68.9 69.5
% of Possessions with UCD SCU
2 Point Attempt 42.9% 42.0%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 23.9%
Player Fouled 24.8% 24.6%
Turnover 14.7% 19.1%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 10.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCD SCU
Shot Blocked 4.8% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 35.1%