NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCAT CIT
Points 65.5 74.7
Total Points   140.2
Points From 2-Pointers 37.2 43.3
Points From 3-Pointers 17.1 19.2
Points From Free Throws 11.3 12.2
Shooting NCAT CIT
Field Goals Made 24.3 28.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.8 56.9
Field Goal % 42.0% 49.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 37.8
2 Point Shooting % 49.1% 57.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.0 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 28.5% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 11.3 12.2
Free Throws Attempted 16.0 17.1
Free Throw % 70.8% 71.4%
Ball Control NCAT CIT
Rebounds 29.4 38.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.1 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 9.3
Turnovers 8.2 10.2
Blocked Shots 3.7 2.6
Steals 5.5 4.1
Fouls 13.0 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: Citadel

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCAT CIT
Total Possessions 68.1
Effective Scoring Chances 67.3 67.2
% of Possessions with NCAT CIT
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 26.1% 24.2%
Player Fouled 19.6% 19.1%
Turnover 12.0% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCAT CIT
Shot Blocked 4.7% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 20.4% 29.5%