NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCAT UNCA
Points 63.8 79.5
Total Points   143.3
Points From 2-Pointers 32.6 39.5
Points From 3-Pointers 16.1 24.7
Points From Free Throws 15.1 15.3
Shooting NCAT UNCA
Field Goals Made 21.7 28.0
Field Goals Attempted 58.8 57.6
Field Goal % 36.9% 48.6%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 35.7
2 Point Shooting % 41.8% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 21.9
3 Point Shooting % 27.2% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 15.1 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 20.4
Free Throw % 70.8% 75.0%
Ball Control NCAT UNCA
Rebounds 32.4 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 30.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 9.5
Turnovers 8.6 9.7
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.2
Steals 5.2 4.2
Fouls 14.9 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: NC A&T

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCAT UNCA
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 71.2 70.1
% of Possessions with NCAT UNCA
2 Point Attempt 47.9% 44.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 27.1%
Player Fouled 20.7% 21.2%
Turnover 12.2% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCAT UNCA
Shot Blocked 7.3% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 29.2%