NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NMSU WSU
Points 56.1 77.1
Total Points   133.2
Points From 2-Pointers 30.3 37.4
Points From 3-Pointers 14.5 21.4
Points From Free Throws 11.3 18.3
Shooting NMSU WSU
Field Goals Made 20.0 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 55.3
Field Goal % 35.2% 46.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.2 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.8 35.3
2 Point Shooting % 38.1% 53.0%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 17.0 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 28.4% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 11.3 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 25.7
Free Throw % 65.5% 71.0%
Ball Control NMSU WSU
Rebounds 29.8 43.9
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 32.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 11.7
Turnovers 9.1 8.5
Blocked Shots 2.0 4.1
Steals 4.4 4.9
Fouls 18.2 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: N Mex State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NMSU WSU
Total Possessions 68.2
Effective Scoring Chances 66.7 71.4
% of Possessions with NMSU WSU
2 Point Attempt 51.4% 43.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.0% 24.8%
Player Fouled 19.8% 26.7%
Turnover 13.4% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken NMSU WSU
Shot Blocked 7.6% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 19.0% 34.6%