NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCAT COPP
Points 66.5 60.6
Total Points   127.1
Points From 2-Pointers 32.6 32.9
Points From 3-Pointers 17.4 17.1
Points From Free Throws 16.4 10.6
Shooting NCAT COPP
Field Goals Made 22.1 22.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.0 57.9
Field Goal % 40.3% 38.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 16.5
2 Pointers Attempted 34.6 38.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.2% 42.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 20.4 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 28.5% 30.0%
Free Throws Made 16.4 10.6
Free Throws Attempted 23.2 14.6
Free Throw % 70.8% 72.6%
Ball Control NCAT COPP
Rebounds 38.3 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 10.2
Turnovers 10.4 12.0
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.6
Steals 6.8 5.5
Fouls 11.6 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: NC A&T

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCAT COPP
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.5 67.2
% of Possessions with NCAT COPP
2 Point Attempt 42.7% 48.2%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 23.7%
Player Fouled 22.5% 16.8%
Turnover 15.0% 17.3%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCAT COPP
Shot Blocked 4.6% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 29.6% 27.1%