NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USU UNM
Points 75.5 76.6
Total Points   152.1
Points From 2-Pointers 42.2 46.0
Points From 3-Pointers 16.9 16.3
Points From Free Throws 16.4 14.3
Shooting USU UNM
Field Goals Made 26.7 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 65.3
Field Goal % 46.5% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 21.1 23.0
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 46.8
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 49.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 29.3%
Free Throws Made 16.4 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.6 19.8
Free Throw % 72.5% 72.3%
Ball Control USU UNM
Rebounds 36.5 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 28.3 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 11.2
Turnovers 11.1 8.4
Blocked Shots 4.6 3.5
Steals 5.3 7.1
Fouls 14.7 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Utah St

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USU UNM
Total Possessions 73.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.0 76.8
% of Possessions with USU UNM
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 53.8%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 21.3%
Player Fouled 21.9% 19.9%
Turnover 15.0% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken USU UNM
Shot Blocked 5.5% 8.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.9% 28.4%