NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NMSU UNM
Points 61.5 83.0
Total Points   144.4
Points From 2-Pointers 33.1 42.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.5 20.9
Points From Free Throws 11.8 19.9
Shooting NMSU UNM
Field Goals Made 22.1 28.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.1 60.9
Field Goal % 37.4% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 21.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.8 40.1
2 Point Shooting % 42.7% 52.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 27.1% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 11.8 19.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 27.6
Free Throw % 65.5% 72.3%
Ball Control NMSU UNM
Rebounds 33.6 43.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 31.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 12.7
Turnovers 11.5 7.4
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.5
Steals 4.5 7.8
Fouls 18.0 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: N Mex State

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NMSU UNM
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 77.5
% of Possessions with NMSU UNM
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 24.5% 24.1%
Player Fouled 18.8% 24.9%
Turnover 16.0% 10.3%
Opponent Steal 10.8% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NMSU UNM
Shot Blocked 7.5% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.7% 34.2%