NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCAT UTEP
Points 62.9 74.0
Total Points   136.9
Points From 2-Pointers 32.7 42.1
Points From 3-Pointers 12.3 17.0
Points From Free Throws 17.9 14.9
Shooting NCAT UTEP
Field Goals Made 20.5 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 49.7 56.9
Field Goal % 41.2% 46.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 21.0
2 Pointers Attempted 34.2 39.4
2 Point Shooting % 47.8% 53.5%
3 Pointers Made 4.1 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 15.4 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 26.6% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 17.9 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 25.3 21.9
Free Throw % 70.8% 68.0%
Ball Control NCAT UTEP
Rebounds 30.4 37.3
Rebounds - Defensive 22.6 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 11.6
Turnovers 13.6 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.8
Steals 5.7 8.6
Fouls 14.7 17.8

Playing Style Advantage: NC A&T

Expected Effect: +0.9 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCAT UTEP
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 65.3 70.9
% of Possessions with NCAT UTEP
2 Point Attempt 42.8% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 19.3% 20.9%
Player Fouled 25.0% 20.7%
Turnover 19.2% 16.7%
Opponent Steal 12.1% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCAT UTEP
Shot Blocked 5.0% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.3% 34.0%