NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USU UNI
Points 76.0 68.9
Total Points   145.0
Points From 2-Pointers 40.8 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.8 18.3
Points From Free Throws 15.4 15.1
Shooting USU UNI
Field Goals Made 27.0 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 54.8 56.2
Field Goal % 49.3% 42.5%
2 Pointers Made 20.4 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 35.1 36.1
2 Point Shooting % 58.2% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.7 20.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 30.2%
Free Throws Made 15.4 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 21.3
Free Throw % 72.5% 70.8%
Ball Control USU UNI
Rebounds 35.6 31.3
Rebounds - Defensive 28.6 24.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 7.0
Turnovers 9.7 9.1
Blocked Shots 3.8 1.7
Steals 5.8 5.7
Fouls 16.1 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: N Iowa

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USU UNI
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 68.5
% of Possessions with USU UNI
2 Point Attempt 44.8% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 25.5%
Player Fouled 24.1% 22.8%
Turnover 13.8% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken USU UNI
Shot Blocked 3.1% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.3% 19.6%