NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NMSU CSB
Points 63.9 69.0
Total Points   133.0
Points From 2-Pointers 29.9 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 17.4 15.7
Points From Free Throws 16.6 17.8
Shooting NMSU CSB
Field Goals Made 20.8 23.0
Field Goals Attempted 51.3 54.9
Field Goal % 40.5% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 15.0 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 38.5
2 Point Shooting % 45.7% 46.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 16.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.3% 31.9%
Free Throws Made 16.6 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 25.4 24.4
Free Throw % 65.5% 73.0%
Ball Control NMSU CSB
Rebounds 32.7 38.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 11.9
Turnovers 10.5 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.1
Steals 5.1 6.1
Fouls 17.6 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: CS Bakersfld

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NMSU CSB
Total Possessions 68.2
Effective Scoring Chances 66.7 70.2
% of Possessions with NMSU CSB
2 Point Attempt 41.8% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 23.6% 20.2%
Player Fouled 25.8% 25.8%
Turnover 15.4% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken NMSU CSB
Shot Blocked 5.7% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 33.5%