NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NMSU UTRGV
Points 73.3 68.7
Total Points   142.0
Points From 2-Pointers 43.2 31.1
Points From 3-Pointers 17.8 17.1
Points From Free Throws 12.4 20.4
Shooting NMSU UTRGV
Field Goals Made 27.5 21.3
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 53.9
Field Goal % 45.7% 39.5%
2 Pointers Made 21.6 15.6
2 Pointers Attempted 40.5 34.0
2 Point Shooting % 53.3% 45.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.7 19.9
3 Point Shooting % 30.0% 28.6%
Free Throws Made 12.4 20.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.9 28.7
Free Throw % 65.5% 71.1%
Ball Control NMSU UTRGV
Rebounds 39.1 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 29.0 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 8.2
Turnovers 10.8 10.5
Blocked Shots 4.0 1.8
Steals 5.6 6.7
Fouls 18.9 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: TX-Pan Am

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NMSU UTRGV
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.4 70.8
% of Possessions with NMSU UTRGV
2 Point Attempt 48.2% 41.0%
3 Point Attempt 23.5% 24.0%
Player Fouled 19.6% 25.9%
Turnover 14.8% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken NMSU UTRGV
Shot Blocked 3.3% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.6% 22.1%