NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NMSU UVU
Points 62.8 68.6
Total Points   131.4
Points From 2-Pointers 33.3 34.5
Points From 3-Pointers 16.9 16.9
Points From Free Throws 12.6 17.2
Shooting NMSU UVU
Field Goals Made 22.3 22.9
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 55.7
Field Goal % 39.1% 41.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 38.3 36.1
2 Point Shooting % 43.4% 47.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.2% 28.8%
Free Throws Made 12.6 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 26.3
Free Throw % 65.5% 65.3%
Ball Control NMSU UVU
Rebounds 36.0 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 29.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 10.7
Turnovers 10.5 9.4
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.6
Steals 5.6 6.4
Fouls 18.2 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: N Mex State

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NMSU UVU
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 68.5 71.6
% of Possessions with NMSU UVU
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.2% 23.9%
Player Fouled 21.2% 25.9%
Turnover 14.9% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NMSU UVU
Shot Blocked 6.6% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.7% 28.1%