NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCI USU
Points 72.1 77.1
Total Points   149.3
Points From 2-Pointers 43.8 41.6
Points From 3-Pointers 14.0 17.5
Points From Free Throws 14.3 18.1
Shooting UCI USU
Field Goals Made 26.6 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 60.6 55.6
Field Goal % 43.9% 47.9%
2 Pointers Made 21.9 20.8
2 Pointers Attempted 45.1 39.2
2 Point Shooting % 48.6% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 4.7 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 15.5 16.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.2% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 14.3 18.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.9 24.9
Free Throw % 75.7% 72.5%
Ball Control UCI USU
Rebounds 34.4 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 7.9
Turnovers 10.2 9.7
Blocked Shots 2.1 4.4
Steals 5.2 5.3
Fouls 18.3 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: UC Irvine

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCI USU
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 71.6 70.7
% of Possessions with UCI USU
2 Point Attempt 54.0% 48.2%
3 Point Attempt 18.5% 20.2%
Player Fouled 21.0% 25.2%
Turnover 14.1% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCI USU
Shot Blocked 8.0% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 25.8% 24.0%