NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCI SDSU
Points 66.9 74.3
Total Points   141.2
Points From 2-Pointers 36.1 37.5
Points From 3-Pointers 15.9 19.4
Points From Free Throws 15.0 17.5
Shooting UCI SDSU
Field Goals Made 23.3 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 56.8
Field Goal % 40.3% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 41.1 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 43.9% 49.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 16.9 18.9
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 15.0 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 23.8
Free Throw % 75.7% 73.7%
Ball Control UCI SDSU
Rebounds 35.0 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 10.8
Turnovers 11.5 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.8
Steals 5.1 6.3
Fouls 18.0 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCI SDSU
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 71.6
% of Possessions with UCI SDSU
2 Point Attempt 49.4% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 20.3% 22.9%
Player Fouled 22.5% 25.5%
Turnover 16.2% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCI SDSU
Shot Blocked 8.6% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 28.7% 30.6%