NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCI BSU
Points 70.0 75.7
Total Points   145.8
Points From 2-Pointers 42.7 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 13.0 22.0
Points From Free Throws 14.3 17.0
Shooting UCI BSU
Field Goals Made 25.7 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 55.3 56.9
Field Goal % 46.4% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 21.3 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 40.5 37.3
2 Point Shooting % 52.7% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 4.3 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 14.8 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 29.3% 37.4%
Free Throws Made 14.3 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.9 22.8
Free Throw % 75.7% 74.3%
Ball Control UCI BSU
Rebounds 31.4 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 10.4
Turnovers 10.8 9.6
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.9
Steals 4.6 4.9
Fouls 16.8 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: UC Irvine

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCI BSU
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 66.7 70.8
% of Possessions with UCI BSU
2 Point Attempt 51.5% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 18.8% 24.0%
Player Fouled 22.5% 24.0%
Turnover 15.4% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCI BSU
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 23.3% 30.2%