NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCI COLO
Points 73.6 79.6
Total Points   153.2
Points From 2-Pointers 47.0 43.4
Points From 3-Pointers 14.2 18.9
Points From Free Throws 12.4 17.3
Shooting UCI COLO
Field Goals Made 28.2 28.0
Field Goals Attempted 60.6 55.5
Field Goal % 46.6% 50.5%
2 Pointers Made 23.5 21.7
2 Pointers Attempted 45.1 40.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.1% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made 4.7 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 15.5 14.7
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 42.8%
Free Throws Made 12.4 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 16.4 22.7
Free Throw % 75.7% 76.0%
Ball Control UCI COLO
Rebounds 30.1 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 21.9 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 8.6
Turnovers 9.6 11.3
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.6
Steals 5.9 5.1
Fouls 17.6 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: UC Irvine

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCI COLO
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 69.3
% of Possessions with UCI COLO
2 Point Attempt 55.6% 49.9%
3 Point Attempt 19.1% 17.9%
Player Fouled 18.7% 24.5%
Turnover 13.4% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCI COLO
Shot Blocked 4.8% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 23.9% 28.3%