NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCI TCU
Points 73.1 77.6
Total Points   150.8
Points From 2-Pointers 43.5 41.7
Points From 3-Pointers 14.1 18.5
Points From Free Throws 15.5 17.4
Shooting UCI TCU
Field Goals Made 26.5 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 59.8
Field Goal % 46.6% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 21.8 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 42.3 44.3
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 47.1%
3 Pointers Made 4.7 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 14.5 15.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 39.8%
Free Throws Made 15.5 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 24.0
Free Throw % 75.7% 72.7%
Ball Control UCI TCU
Rebounds 33.3 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 11.8
Turnovers 13.2 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.3 4.5
Steals 5.3 7.1
Fouls 16.8 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: UC Irvine

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCI TCU
Total Possessions 73.5
Effective Scoring Chances 69.1 74.7
% of Possessions with UCI TCU
2 Point Attempt 50.4% 51.2%
3 Point Attempt 17.2% 17.9%
Player Fouled 21.6% 22.9%
Turnover 17.9% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 9.6% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCI TCU
Shot Blocked 7.7% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 32.5%