NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCI UCSD
Points 78.2 73.1
Total Points   151.3
Points From 2-Pointers 47.4 35.7
Points From 3-Pointers 17.3 23.1
Points From Free Throws 13.5 14.4
Shooting UCI UCSD
Field Goals Made 29.5 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 58.4 58.4
Field Goal % 50.5% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 23.7 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 42.4 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 55.9% 47.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 15.9 20.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 13.5 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 19.4
Free Throw % 75.7% 74.1%
Ball Control UCI UCSD
Rebounds 35.4 31.3
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 22.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 8.4
Turnovers 9.5 8.9
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.8
Steals 4.1 4.7
Fouls 16.2 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: UCSD

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCI UCSD
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 69.1 69.8
% of Possessions with UCI UCSD
2 Point Attempt 53.2% 46.8%
3 Point Attempt 20.0% 26.1%
Player Fouled 21.7% 23.1%
Turnover 13.5% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCI UCSD
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 23.7%