NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCI PEPP
Points 76.5 69.1
Total Points   145.6
Points From 2-Pointers 46.1 36.6
Points From 3-Pointers 14.7 18.2
Points From Free Throws 15.7 14.3
Shooting UCI PEPP
Field Goals Made 28.0 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 56.5
Field Goal % 49.1% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 23.1 18.3
2 Pointers Attempted 43.9 40.4
2 Point Shooting % 52.5% 45.2%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 13.0 16.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 37.9%
Free Throws Made 15.7 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 20.5
Free Throw % 75.7% 69.8%
Ball Control UCI PEPP
Rebounds 35.6 31.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.7 22.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 8.9
Turnovers 10.2 10.6
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.0
Steals 5.3 4.2
Fouls 17.4 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Pepperdine

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCI PEPP
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.6 69.2
% of Possessions with UCI PEPP
2 Point Attempt 54.3% 50.1%
3 Point Attempt 16.1% 19.9%
Player Fouled 22.1% 24.5%
Turnover 14.4% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCI PEPP
Shot Blocked 5.3% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 27.9% 25.0%