NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GRC SDSU
Points 67.9 69.9
Total Points   137.8
Points From 2-Pointers 27.0 34.0
Points From 3-Pointers 21.2 18.8
Points From Free Throws 19.7 17.2
Shooting GRC SDSU
Field Goals Made 20.6 23.3
Field Goals Attempted 54.7 57.4
Field Goal % 37.6% 40.5%
2 Pointers Made 13.5 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 31.6 37.2
2 Point Shooting % 42.8% 45.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 20.2
3 Point Shooting % 30.5% 31.1%
Free Throws Made 19.7 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 25.9 23.3
Free Throw % 76.0% 73.7%
Ball Control GRC SDSU
Rebounds 36.8 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 12.2
Turnovers 11.8 11.1
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.9
Steals 6.8 6.5
Fouls 17.3 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GRC SDSU
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 70.7 71.9
% of Possessions with GRC SDSU
2 Point Attempt 37.5% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 27.5% 23.8%
Player Fouled 25.0% 24.5%
Turnover 16.6% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken GRC SDSU
Shot Blocked 7.0% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 31.3% 32.7%