NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GRC PEPP
Points 77.0 64.8
Total Points   141.8
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 19.6 17.6
Points From Free Throws 20.7 14.0
Shooting GRC PEPP
Field Goals Made 24.9 22.5
Field Goals Attempted 53.6 56.6
Field Goal % 46.4% 39.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 35.8 39.6
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 42.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 17.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 20.7 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 27.2 20.0
Free Throw % 76.0% 69.8%
Ball Control GRC PEPP
Rebounds 37.3 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 22.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 10.0
Turnovers 10.5 12.0
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.4
Steals 6.9 4.3
Fouls 16.7 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Pepperdine

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GRC PEPP
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 69.0
% of Possessions with GRC PEPP
2 Point Attempt 43.7% 48.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.8% 20.6%
Player Fouled 24.6% 23.5%
Turnover 14.7% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 9.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken GRC PEPP
Shot Blocked 4.3% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 30.5% 26.7%