NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDSU SMC
Points 62.6 67.2
Total Points   129.8
Points From 2-Pointers 32.5 32.6
Points From 3-Pointers 14.7 22.8
Points From Free Throws 15.4 11.8
Shooting SDSU SMC
Field Goals Made 21.2 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 51.9 57.8
Field Goal % 40.7% 41.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 16.3
2 Pointers Attempted 36.1 34.8
2 Point Shooting % 45.1% 46.8%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 15.9 23.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 15.4 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 17.6
Free Throw % 73.7% 67.1%
Ball Control SDSU SMC
Rebounds 31.1 39.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 13.1
Turnovers 9.2 10.2
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.2
Steals 6.0 5.8
Fouls 14.3 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: St Marys

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDSU SMC
Total Possessions 66.3
Effective Scoring Chances 64.3 69.1
% of Possessions with SDSU SMC
2 Point Attempt 48.2% 43.0%
3 Point Attempt 21.2% 28.5%
Player Fouled 25.6% 21.6%
Turnover 13.9% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDSU SMC
Shot Blocked 5.6% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 21.3% 35.4%