NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDSU UNM
Points 71.9 71.7
Total Points   143.6
Points From 2-Pointers 37.2 38.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.8 18.7
Points From Free Throws 15.9 15.1
Shooting SDSU UNM
Field Goals Made 24.9 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.8 63.2
Field Goal % 42.3% 39.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 42.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.2% 44.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 20.4
3 Point Shooting % 28.8% 30.5%
Free Throws Made 15.9 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 20.9
Free Throw % 73.7% 72.3%
Ball Control SDSU UNM
Rebounds 39.1 38.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.9 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 12.8
Turnovers 11.3 9.4
Blocked Shots 5.0 4.2
Steals 6.3 7.1
Fouls 15.4 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDSU UNM
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.0 75.5
% of Possessions with SDSU UNM
2 Point Attempt 43.6% 49.2%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 23.5%
Player Fouled 22.2% 21.4%
Turnover 15.6% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDSU UNM
Shot Blocked 6.8% 8.7%
Offensive Rebound 30.4% 31.5%