NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDSU USD
Points 79.6 62.2
Total Points   141.8
Points From 2-Pointers 37.1 27.7
Points From 3-Pointers 21.5 20.5
Points From Free Throws 21.0 14.0
Shooting SDSU USD
Field Goals Made 25.7 20.7
Field Goals Attempted 55.8 55.9
Field Goal % 46.1% 36.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 13.8
2 Pointers Attempted 33.2 34.7
2 Point Shooting % 55.9% 39.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 22.6 21.2
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 21.0 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 28.5 19.4
Free Throw % 73.7% 72.1%
Ball Control SDSU USD
Rebounds 40.6 31.6
Rebounds - Defensive 28.3 22.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 9.6
Turnovers 10.7 13.8
Blocked Shots 4.7 2.9
Steals 8.7 6.3
Fouls 15.0 19.2

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDSU USD
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 73.6 67.8
% of Possessions with SDSU USD
2 Point Attempt 38.8% 41.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 25.4%
Player Fouled 26.6% 20.9%
Turnover 14.9% 19.1%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 12.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDSU USD
Shot Blocked 5.2% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 35.9% 25.4%