NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WIS MARQ
Points 73.1 78.5
Total Points   151.6
Points From 2-Pointers 35.1 41.5
Points From 3-Pointers 25.2 26.1
Points From Free Throws 12.8 10.9
Shooting WIS MARQ
Field Goals Made 25.9 29.4
Field Goals Attempted 58.7 55.6
Field Goal % 44.2% 53.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 20.7
2 Pointers Attempted 34.5 33.6
2 Point Shooting % 50.8% 61.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 24.2 21.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 39.7%
Free Throws Made 12.8 10.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 15.9
Free Throw % 75.1% 68.8%
Ball Control WIS MARQ
Rebounds 34.0 29.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 5.8
Turnovers 10.7 9.7
Blocked Shots 1.6 4.0
Steals 5.6 5.9
Fouls 13.7 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Wisconsin

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WIS MARQ
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 69.2 65.3
% of Possessions with WIS MARQ
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 44.5%
3 Point Attempt 29.7% 29.0%
Player Fouled 21.0% 19.7%
Turnover 15.5% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken WIS MARQ
Shot Blocked 7.2% 2.9%
Offensive Rebound 30.7% 19.8%