NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LBSU CSUS
Points 75.0 66.7
Total Points   141.7
Points From 2-Pointers 44.2 24.8
Points From 3-Pointers 14.8 29.7
Points From Free Throws 16.0 12.1
Shooting LBSU CSUS
Field Goals Made 27.0 22.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 56.2
Field Goal % 47.1% 39.7%
2 Pointers Made 22.1 12.4
2 Pointers Attempted 41.6 28.1
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 44.1%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 9.9
3 Pointers Attempted 15.8 28.1
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 16.0 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 22.4 16.9
Free Throw % 71.5% 71.7%
Ball Control LBSU CSUS
Rebounds 35.9 34.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 23.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 11.0
Turnovers 9.2 13.8
Blocked Shots 4.4 2.3
Steals 7.7 4.8
Fouls 13.9 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: Sac State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LBSU CSUS
Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 71.3 67.0
% of Possessions with LBSU CSUS
2 Point Attempt 51.1% 34.1%
3 Point Attempt 19.4% 34.0%
Player Fouled 24.7% 20.0%
Turnover 13.2% 19.7%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 11.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken LBSU CSUS
Shot Blocked 4.2% 7.8%
Offensive Rebound 31.5% 30.4%