NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BAY MARQ
Points 75.4 77.5
Total Points   153.0
Points From 2-Pointers 33.0 40.7
Points From 3-Pointers 28.5 25.7
Points From Free Throws 13.9 11.1
Shooting BAY MARQ
Field Goals Made 26.0 28.9
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 57.7
Field Goal % 45.4% 50.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 20.4
2 Pointers Attempted 32.1 33.9
2 Point Shooting % 51.5% 60.0%
3 Pointers Made 9.5 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 25.2 23.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 13.9 11.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 16.2
Free Throw % 73.1% 68.8%
Ball Control BAY MARQ
Rebounds 36.8 28.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 22.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 6.8
Turnovers 12.4 9.4
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.7
Steals 5.7 7.6
Fouls 14.1 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Baylor

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BAY MARQ
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.6 67.3
% of Possessions with BAY MARQ
2 Point Attempt 38.5% 43.6%
3 Point Attempt 30.2% 30.5%
Player Fouled 20.5% 20.1%
Turnover 17.7% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 10.9% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken BAY MARQ
Shot Blocked 6.4% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 35.2% 21.4%