NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCO CSU
Points 67.0 80.5
Total Points   147.5
Points From 2-Pointers 37.2 43.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.1 23.3
Points From Free Throws 10.7 13.6
Shooting UNCO CSU
Field Goals Made 25.0 29.6
Field Goals Attempted 58.0 57.2
Field Goal % 43.0% 51.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 35.4
2 Point Shooting % 48.4% 61.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 10.7 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 14.3 18.2
Free Throw % 74.6% 74.7%
Ball Control UNCO CSU
Rebounds 30.4 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 28.1
Rebounds - Offensive 6.7 6.7
Turnovers 10.2 8.4
Blocked Shots 1.7 3.0
Steals 4.5 5.9
Fouls 15.8 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Colorado St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCO CSU
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 68.3
% of Possessions with UNCO CSU
2 Point Attempt 49.3% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 28.2%
Player Fouled 18.8% 22.5%
Turnover 14.6% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCO CSU
Shot Blocked 5.3% 3.0%
Offensive Rebound 19.3% 22.0%