NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CARK ARK
Points 65.7 85.7
Total Points   151.4
Points From 2-Pointers 30.2 39.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 22.6
Points From Free Throws 15.8 23.3
Shooting CARK ARK
Field Goals Made 21.7 27.4
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 56.2
Field Goal % 36.2% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 15.1 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 39.6 36.0
2 Point Shooting % 38.1% 55.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 15.8 23.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 30.4
Free Throw % 75.3% 76.5%
Ball Control CARK ARK
Rebounds 33.5 40.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 31.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 8.9
Turnovers 12.5 9.6
Blocked Shots 2.4 5.1
Steals 5.6 7.7
Fouls 19.9 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Central Ark

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CARK ARK
Total Possessions 75.4
Effective Scoring Chances 72.2 74.6
% of Possessions with CARK ARK
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 42.2%
3 Point Attempt 23.4% 23.8%
Player Fouled 20.9% 26.4%
Turnover 16.6% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken CARK ARK
Shot Blocked 9.2% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 26.9%