NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MER UNCG
Points 68.8 74.4
Total Points   143.1
Points From 2-Pointers 34.8 32.9
Points From 3-Pointers 21.5 27.9
Points From Free Throws 12.4 13.6
Shooting MER UNCG
Field Goals Made 24.6 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 57.0
Field Goal % 43.7% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 33.2
2 Point Shooting % 46.8% 49.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 39.1%
Free Throws Made 12.4 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 18.6
Free Throw % 67.9% 72.8%
Ball Control MER UNCG
Rebounds 33.1 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.1 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 10.9
Turnovers 10.2 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.6
Steals 5.4 6.3
Fouls 15.9 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Mercer

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MER UNCG
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 68.8
% of Possessions with MER UNCG
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 41.6%
3 Point Attempt 24.1% 29.8%
Player Fouled 20.1% 23.4%
Turnover 15.0% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MER UNCG
Shot Blocked 4.5% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 32.0%