NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CARK PEPP
Points 67.0 79.2
Total Points   146.2
Points From 2-Pointers 32.8 37.5
Points From 3-Pointers 21.1 26.2
Points From Free Throws 13.0 15.5
Shooting CARK PEPP
Field Goals Made 23.4 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 58.4
Field Goal % 41.5% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.6 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 43.6% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 21.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.3% 40.4%
Free Throws Made 13.0 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 22.2
Free Throw % 75.3% 69.8%
Ball Control CARK PEPP
Rebounds 32.4 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.3 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 10.6
Turnovers 12.0 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.3 2.5
Steals 5.7 6.0
Fouls 16.9 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Pepperdine

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CARK PEPP
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 67.3 72.2
% of Possessions with CARK PEPP
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 44.5%
3 Point Attempt 23.5% 26.1%
Player Fouled 19.4% 23.7%
Turnover 16.8% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken CARK PEPP
Shot Blocked 4.4% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 22.9% 30.3%