NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CARK ACU
Points 68.8 77.0
Total Points   145.8
Points From 2-Pointers 35.0 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 21.7
Points From Free Throws 13.8 17.8
Shooting CARK ACU
Field Goals Made 24.2 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 58.3
Field Goal % 43.0% 44.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 39.9
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 47.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 39.2%
Free Throws Made 13.8 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 24.2
Free Throw % 75.3% 73.4%
Ball Control CARK ACU
Rebounds 35.6 34.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 9.3
Turnovers 14.2 9.8
Blocked Shots 2.9 1.9
Steals 5.7 8.7
Fouls 16.9 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Abl Christian

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CARK ACU
Total Possessions 73.4
Effective Scoring Chances 68.2 72.9
% of Possessions with CARK ACU
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 47.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.0% 21.9%
Player Fouled 20.6% 23.0%
Turnover 19.4% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 11.8% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken CARK ACU
Shot Blocked 3.3% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 26.1% 26.0%