NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MER GT
Points 67.9 77.5
Total Points   145.4
Points From 2-Pointers 37.3 38.8
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 22.5
Points From Free Throws 10.5 16.3
Shooting MER GT
Field Goals Made 25.3 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 63.0 57.9
Field Goal % 40.2% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 42.7 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 43.7% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 10.5 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 15.5 22.1
Free Throw % 67.9% 73.6%
Ball Control MER GT
Rebounds 32.8 41.6
Rebounds - Defensive 22.5 29.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 11.8
Turnovers 8.0 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.8
Steals 5.6 4.2
Fouls 16.3 11.8

Playing Style Advantage: Mercer

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MER GT
Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 71.8
% of Possessions with MER GT
2 Point Attempt 52.3% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 24.8% 25.9%
Player Fouled 16.9% 23.4%
Turnover 11.5% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MER GT
Shot Blocked 6.6% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 34.5%