NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IDST UCD
Points 63.6 69.7
Total Points   133.3
Points From 2-Pointers 33.3 38.5
Points From 3-Pointers 15.8 15.7
Points From Free Throws 14.5 15.5
Shooting IDST UCD
Field Goals Made 21.9 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 52.6 50.9
Field Goal % 41.7% 48.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 34.6 36.3
2 Point Shooting % 48.1% 53.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 18.0 14.6
3 Point Shooting % 29.3% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 14.5 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 20.4
Free Throw % 70.0% 76.1%
Ball Control IDST UCD
Rebounds 30.8 32.4
Rebounds - Defensive 21.0 24.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 8.1
Turnovers 12.1 12.6
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.7
Steals 6.9 7.3
Fouls 16.1 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Idaho St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IDST UCD
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 65.8 63.5
% of Possessions with IDST UCD
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 22.8% 18.9%
Player Fouled 26.1% 23.7%
Turnover 17.7% 18.5%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 10.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken IDST UCD
Shot Blocked 5.3% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 28.8% 27.8%