NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IDST CSUS
Points 68.1 63.9
Total Points   131.9
Points From 2-Pointers 37.5 34.2
Points From 3-Pointers 17.5 17.5
Points From Free Throws 13.1 12.2
Shooting IDST CSUS
Field Goals Made 24.6 22.9
Field Goals Attempted 52.9 50.5
Field Goal % 46.5% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 34.3 34.1
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 50.1%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 16.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 13.1 12.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 17.0
Free Throw % 70.0% 71.7%
Ball Control IDST CSUS
Rebounds 28.4 33.2
Rebounds - Defensive 19.9 23.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 10.2
Turnovers 9.0 13.5
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.1
Steals 7.1 4.9
Fouls 14.1 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Idaho St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IDST CSUS
Total Possessions 64.9
Effective Scoring Chances 64.4 61.6
% of Possessions with IDST CSUS
2 Point Attempt 46.2% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 21.4%
Player Fouled 25.4% 21.8%
Turnover 13.8% 20.8%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 10.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken IDST CSUS
Shot Blocked 4.3% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 27.0% 33.8%