NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DART UMASS
Points 63.5 75.6
Total Points   139.1
Points From 2-Pointers 34.3 40.1
Points From 3-Pointers 18.9 21.7
Points From Free Throws 10.2 13.8
Shooting DART UMASS
Field Goals Made 23.5 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.5 59.3
Field Goal % 40.1% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 39.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.3% 50.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 19.8
3 Point Shooting % 29.4% 36.5%
Free Throws Made 10.2 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 15.4 18.6
Free Throw % 66.3% 74.3%
Ball Control DART UMASS
Rebounds 33.5 38.4
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 30.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 8.3
Turnovers 11.2 9.4
Blocked Shots 4.0 4.4
Steals 5.1 7.1
Fouls 14.4 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Dartmouth

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DART UMASS
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 67.3 70.1
% of Possessions with DART UMASS
2 Point Attempt 46.2% 48.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 24.5%
Player Fouled 19.2% 20.3%
Turnover 15.7% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken DART UMASS
Shot Blocked 7.6% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 19.8% 24.2%