NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SLU VCU
Points 66.4 79.0
Total Points   145.4
Points From 2-Pointers 29.3 31.8
Points From 3-Pointers 21.1 30.6
Points From Free Throws 16.1 16.6
Shooting SLU VCU
Field Goals Made 21.7 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 54.0 55.5
Field Goal % 40.1% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 14.6 15.9
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 29.0
2 Point Shooting % 44.8% 54.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 10.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.4 26.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 38.7%
Free Throws Made 16.1 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 21.4
Free Throw % 75.1% 77.2%
Ball Control SLU VCU
Rebounds 31.8 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 8.7
Turnovers 10.6 8.8
Blocked Shots 1.9 4.7
Steals 5.5 6.5
Fouls 15.6 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Saint Louis

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SLU VCU
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 68.7
% of Possessions with SLU VCU
2 Point Attempt 41.4% 37.1%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 33.7%
Player Fouled 22.2% 22.7%
Turnover 15.4% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SLU VCU
Shot Blocked 8.5% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 23.7% 27.0%