NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SLU AUB
Points 66.0 90.7
Total Points   156.7
Points From 2-Pointers 27.8 43.5
Points From 3-Pointers 17.7 27.5
Points From Free Throws 20.5 19.7
Shooting SLU AUB
Field Goals Made 19.8 30.9
Field Goals Attempted 54.8 58.9
Field Goal % 36.1% 52.5%
2 Pointers Made 13.9 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 36.7 35.2
2 Point Shooting % 37.9% 61.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 9.2
3 Pointers Attempted 18.1 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 38.8%
Free Throws Made 20.5 19.7
Free Throws Attempted 27.3 26.3
Free Throw % 75.1% 74.8%
Ball Control SLU AUB
Rebounds 31.0 38.9
Rebounds - Defensive 21.4 28.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 10.4
Turnovers 11.8 7.9
Blocked Shots 2.2 7.4
Steals 5.2 7.0
Fouls 17.8 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: Saint Louis

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SLU AUB
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 74.9
% of Possessions with SLU AUB
2 Point Attempt 43.2% 42.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.3% 28.2%
Player Fouled 24.3% 24.6%
Turnover 16.3% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken SLU AUB
Shot Blocked 12.7% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 32.7%