NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOW NCAT
Points 78.3 69.2
Total Points   147.5
Points From 2-Pointers 37.7 35.3
Points From 3-Pointers 24.5 16.6
Points From Free Throws 16.1 17.3
Shooting HOW NCAT
Field Goals Made 27.0 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 55.6
Field Goal % 47.2% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.2 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.2% 48.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.1 18.8
3 Point Shooting % 38.7% 29.4%
Free Throws Made 16.1 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 24.4
Free Throw % 76.0% 70.8%
Ball Control HOW NCAT
Rebounds 40.0 29.4
Rebounds - Defensive 28.5 21.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 8.0
Turnovers 11.2 8.1
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.4
Steals 4.2 5.5
Fouls 16.9 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: NC A&T

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOW NCAT
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 70.1
% of Possessions with HOW NCAT
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 23.8%
Player Fouled 20.2% 24.1%
Turnover 15.9% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOW NCAT
Shot Blocked 6.3% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 35.1% 22.0%