NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOW TOL
Points 77.9 85.9
Total Points   163.9
Points From 2-Pointers 40.6 46.6
Points From 3-Pointers 23.4 19.5
Points From Free Throws 14.0 19.8
Shooting HOW TOL
Field Goals Made 28.1 29.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 55.9
Field Goal % 50.0% 53.3%
2 Pointers Made 20.3 23.3
2 Pointers Attempted 35.9 39.5
2 Point Shooting % 56.6% 59.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 16.4
3 Point Shooting % 38.3% 39.5%
Free Throws Made 14.0 19.8
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 26.7
Free Throw % 76.0% 74.2%
Ball Control HOW TOL
Rebounds 31.2 29.3
Rebounds - Defensive 22.0 21.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 8.0
Turnovers 13.8 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.5
Steals 4.9 7.1
Fouls 18.6 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Toledo

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOW TOL
Total Possessions 72.6
Effective Scoring Chances 68.1 71.7
% of Possessions with HOW TOL
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 48.2%
3 Point Attempt 24.5% 20.1%
Player Fouled 20.2% 25.6%
Turnover 18.9% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOW TOL
Shot Blocked 4.5% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 30.2% 26.7%