NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BUCK NCST
Points 58.8 76.6
Total Points   135.5
Points From 2-Pointers 25.7 39.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.3 20.6
Points From Free Throws 9.8 16.5
Shooting BUCK NCST
Field Goals Made 20.6 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 54.3 57.4
Field Goal % 38.0% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 12.8 19.7
2 Pointers Attempted 29.5 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 43.5% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 24.8 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 9.8 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 14.0 22.7
Free Throw % 70.3% 72.6%
Ball Control BUCK NCST
Rebounds 31.6 38.2
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 10.7
Turnovers 12.8 7.0
Blocked Shots 2.5 4.6
Steals 4.0 7.2
Fouls 15.7 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: NC State

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BUCK NCST
Total Possessions 67.5
Effective Scoring Chances 62.6 71.1
% of Possessions with BUCK NCST
2 Point Attempt 38.2% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 32.1% 25.6%
Player Fouled 19.4% 23.3%
Turnover 18.9% 10.4%
Opponent Steal 10.6% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken BUCK NCST
Shot Blocked 8.1% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.3% 31.0%