NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ME CCSU
Points 64.2 65.9
Total Points   130.1
Points From 2-Pointers 36.1 37.3
Points From 3-Pointers 17.3 15.5
Points From Free Throws 10.8 13.0
Shooting ME CCSU
Field Goals Made 23.8 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 55.4
Field Goal % 42.1% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 38.5 38.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.9% 48.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 18.1 16.9
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 30.6%
Free Throws Made 10.8 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.1 18.2
Free Throw % 71.4% 71.4%
Ball Control ME CCSU
Rebounds 32.8 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 8.4
Turnovers 10.8 11.0
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.1
Steals 7.3 6.7
Fouls 13.8 12.3

Playing Style Advantage: Central Conn

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ME CCSU
Total Possessions 69.1
Effective Scoring Chances 65.2 66.5
% of Possessions with ME CCSU
2 Point Attempt 49.6% 48.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.3% 21.5%
Player Fouled 17.8% 20.0%
Turnover 15.6% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 10.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken ME CCSU
Shot Blocked 7.5% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 19.9% 24.6%