NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARMY MW
Points 54.6 63.3
Total Points   117.8
Points From 2-Pointers 29.1 27.9
Points From 3-Pointers 17.1 22.4
Points From Free Throws 8.4 12.9
Shooting ARMY MW
Field Goals Made 20.3 21.4
Field Goals Attempted 51.7 51.0
Field Goal % 39.2% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 14.6 14.0
2 Pointers Attempted 32.9 28.2
2 Point Shooting % 44.3% 49.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 18.8 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 30.2% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 8.4 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 14.0 17.3
Free Throw % 60.0% 74.8%
Ball Control ARMY MW
Rebounds 37.1 29.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 5.5
Turnovers 15.4 10.6
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.4
Steals 5.5 9.6
Fouls 15.3 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: Merrimack

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARMY MW
Total Possessions 66.1
Effective Scoring Chances 61.5 61.0
% of Possessions with ARMY MW
2 Point Attempt 42.0% 38.6%
3 Point Attempt 24.1% 31.3%
Player Fouled 19.5% 23.1%
Turnover 23.4% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 14.6% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARMY MW
Shot Blocked 6.8% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 31.5% 17.3%