NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DUKE UVA
Points 65.7 60.5
Total Points   126.2
Points From 2-Pointers 31.7 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.8 15.8
Points From Free Throws 11.2 7.9
Shooting DUKE UVA
Field Goals Made 23.4 23.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 57.0
Field Goal % 41.4% 41.5%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 33.8 40.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.9% 45.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.8 16.5
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 31.9%
Free Throws Made 11.2 7.9
Free Throws Attempted 15.7 12.7
Free Throw % 71.6% 62.1%
Ball Control DUKE UVA
Rebounds 38.6 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 7.9
Turnovers 9.0 7.2
Blocked Shots 3.7 6.5
Steals 4.8 5.1
Fouls 11.4 11.5

Playing Style Advantage: Duke

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DUKE UVA
Total Possessions 63.5
Effective Scoring Chances 65.3 64.2
% of Possessions with DUKE UVA
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 55.6%
3 Point Attempt 29.7% 22.6%
Player Fouled 18.2% 18.0%
Turnover 14.2% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken DUKE UVA
Shot Blocked 11.6% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 31.0% 22.2%