NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CCSU FDU
Points 76.4 67.5
Total Points   143.9
Points From 2-Pointers 39.0 32.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.2 22.3
Points From Free Throws 14.2 12.9
Shooting CCSU FDU
Field Goals Made 27.3 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 58.0 60.8
Field Goal % 47.0% 38.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 36.3 38.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.7% 42.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 14.2 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 18.6
Free Throw % 71.4% 69.4%
Ball Control CCSU FDU
Rebounds 39.7 34.3
Rebounds - Defensive 30.7 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 9.3
Turnovers 11.5 10.6
Blocked Shots 4.2 2.3
Steals 6.4 7.0
Fouls 13.5 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Central Conn

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CCSU FDU
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 71.7
% of Possessions with CCSU FDU
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.1% 26.8%
Player Fouled 20.8% 18.4%
Turnover 15.8% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken CCSU FDU
Shot Blocked 3.9% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 23.2%