NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PRE UNCA
Points 69.8 78.0
Total Points   147.8
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 36.2
Points From 3-Pointers 18.8 22.2
Points From Free Throws 14.2 19.6
Shooting PRE UNCA
Field Goals Made 24.7 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 51.9
Field Goal % 43.2% 49.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.7 33.5
2 Point Shooting % 48.7% 54.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 40.2%
Free Throws Made 14.2 19.6
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 26.2
Free Throw % 66.0% 75.0%
Ball Control PRE UNCA
Rebounds 32.1 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.6 26.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 7.5
Turnovers 10.8 11.2
Blocked Shots 3.3 4.4
Steals 6.5 5.3
Fouls 18.7 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Asheville

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PRE UNCA
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 69.9 67.6
% of Possessions with PRE UNCA
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 23.5% 23.0%
Player Fouled 22.0% 26.2%
Turnover 15.2% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken PRE UNCA
Shot Blocked 8.6% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 26.0% 24.9%