NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PRE VMI
Points 79.6 68.5
Total Points   148.1
Points From 2-Pointers 44.8 37.9
Points From 3-Pointers 19.8 17.2
Points From Free Throws 15.1 13.4
Shooting PRE VMI
Field Goals Made 29.0 24.7
Field Goals Attempted 60.1 56.1
Field Goal % 48.2% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 22.4 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 40.6 38.4
2 Point Shooting % 55.2% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 32.4%
Free Throws Made 15.1 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 19.0
Free Throw % 66.0% 70.4%
Ball Control PRE VMI
Rebounds 36.1 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 7.4
Turnovers 10.2 14.8
Blocked Shots 3.4 2.6
Steals 9.1 5.1
Fouls 15.3 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: VMI

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PRE VMI
Total Possessions 75.2
Effective Scoring Chances 74.1 67.8
% of Possessions with PRE VMI
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 22.9% 21.1%
Player Fouled 21.9% 20.3%
Turnover 13.6% 19.7%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 12.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken PRE VMI
Shot Blocked 4.7% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.5% 21.5%