NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTU CCU
Points 72.3 70.6
Total Points   142.9
Points From 2-Pointers 27.6 41.9
Points From 3-Pointers 29.4 16.3
Points From Free Throws 15.3 12.4
Shooting MTU CCU
Field Goals Made 23.6 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 61.4 61.0
Field Goal % 38.4% 43.2%
2 Pointers Made 13.8 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 29.4 44.5
2 Point Shooting % 47.1% 47.0%
3 Pointers Made 9.8 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 32.1 16.5
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 15.3 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 17.9
Free Throw % 71.4% 69.4%
Ball Control MTU CCU
Rebounds 38.8 39.8
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 29.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 9.9
Turnovers 9.2 10.6
Blocked Shots 4.1 2.8
Steals 5.7 4.5
Fouls 13.3 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Middle Tenn

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTU CCU
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 74.6 71.7
% of Possessions with MTU CCU
2 Point Attempt 34.6% 53.0%
3 Point Attempt 37.8% 19.6%
Player Fouled 20.2% 18.3%
Turnover 12.7% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTU CCU
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 26.3%