NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTU MRSH
Points 67.8 71.4
Total Points   139.1
Points From 2-Pointers 29.4 38.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.7 21.3
Points From Free Throws 14.6 11.6
Shooting MTU MRSH
Field Goals Made 22.6 26.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 64.7
Field Goal % 38.7% 40.7%
2 Pointers Made 14.7 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.8 42.9
2 Point Shooting % 42.2% 44.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 23.5 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 14.6 11.6
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 16.2
Free Throw % 71.4% 71.7%
Ball Control MTU MRSH
Rebounds 39.9 39.5
Rebounds - Defensive 29.6 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 11.2
Turnovers 12.1 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.5 4.7
Steals 4.7 6.0
Fouls 12.5 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Middle Tenn

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTU MRSH
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 70.7 74.8
% of Possessions with MTU MRSH
2 Point Attempt 41.2% 50.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 25.7%
Player Fouled 20.5% 17.3%
Turnover 16.6% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTU MRSH
Shot Blocked 7.3% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 27.4%