NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTST UNCO
Points 78.7 78.3
Total Points   157.1
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 45.5
Points From 3-Pointers 30.2 19.9
Points From Free Throws 11.7 13.0
Shooting MTST UNCO
Field Goals Made 28.5 29.4
Field Goals Attempted 59.1 58.0
Field Goal % 48.2% 50.6%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 22.7
2 Pointers Attempted 33.9 39.0
2 Point Shooting % 54.4% 58.2%
3 Pointers Made 10.1 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 25.2 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 39.9% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 11.7 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.2 17.4
Free Throw % 72.4% 74.6%
Ball Control MTST UNCO
Rebounds 30.3 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 5.8 6.7
Turnovers 10.2 11.1
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.2
Steals 7.3 5.5
Fouls 14.9 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTST UNCO
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 68.8 68.7
% of Possessions with MTST UNCO
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 48.4%
3 Point Attempt 31.6% 23.6%
Player Fouled 21.0% 20.4%
Turnover 13.9% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTST UNCO
Shot Blocked 3.8% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 17.7% 21.4%